Wednesday, March 18, 2009

What Does Forex Trading Strategy Mean? | SigmaForex

A set of analyses that a SigmaForex uses to determine whether to buy or sell a currency pair at any given time. Forex trading strategies can be based on technical analysis charting tools or fundamental, news-based events. SigmaForex's currency trading strategy is usually made up of a multitude of signals, which trigger buy or sell decisions. Forex trading strategies are available for free, for a fee or are developed by the traders themselves.

SIGMAFOREX has sole discretion to disqualify any entrant found in violation of the rules of the contest or applying inappropriate trading strategies or any frauds in trading.

The motto of SigmaForex is "Not only physical power that can make you win, it is the power of mind that helps you the most to make the best living in all its sides".
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Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Pattern Recognition and Forex Trading

The brightest illustration of gaining the trading skill necessary is via pattern recognition and the huge amount of data on technical analysis. Numerous technical analysis books resemble the type of books that are carried around by medical students. They try to mix market symptoms into distinctive patterns which are targeted to assist the trader diagnose the market.
A few of these patterns might be chart patterns, whilst others may be founded on spotting cycles and configurations, and so on. Like the medical student turned doctor, each technical analyst should develop a degree of skill by understanding the respective markets and by discovering how to spot the patterns.

Observe how the pattern identification and research results lead to really different approaches to the training of forex market traders. The traders tend to discover how to develop their trading by doing their research by finding out how to use more advanced tools, accumulate additional information, uncover the best forecasters, and so forth.
Nevertheless, from a pattern recognition advantage point, being successful at trading won’t follow from carrying out additional research. Rather, acquiring the knowledge straight from the experts and through a good deal of use will lead to the sound development of competence. The research point of view essentially treats trading as an example of science. Like scientists, we gain our knowledge by making fresh observations and pattern recognition through a view that views trading as a working activity. We acquire our skill through our teachers and by conitinually practicing the trades.
It would appear that this example of expertise may be learned by studying pattern recognition from some other seasoned traders then gaining the skills sufficiently well enough to distinguish them by yourself. Traditionally, this is how it’s managed, but since pattern recognition usually means a reliable quantity of sound judgement, it makes it very difficult to build external efficaciousness when it departs the hands of the experts. Plainly put, a skillful trader might be able to apply more data in trading than he can in reality express.

Adept traders frequently describe their employment in terms of cash value and unpredictability patterns, but it could be the way that the patterns are applied which makes the difference between beginner and expertise. Whilst the experts might be able to make out patterns in their work, it is still unclear if their greatness lies in the patterns themselves.

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Forex pattern recognition doji

Pattern Recognition
Double Tops & Double Bottoms
Double Tops do not only provide technical traders with a firm indication of a beginning downward trend; they also prove that price movement is not random, but rather is a clear indication of market sentiment. Double Tops occur when a new high is plotted, raising the resistance level. The price then retraces and declines, only to rise again and reach the same high or resistance level.

• As can be seen in figure 1 Double Tops can be thought of as true market sentiment. Traders around the globe push the price to a new high; because the new high is a tad extreme the price is subsequently brought back down. Again traders push up to the same level, testing it just one more time; again the price feels too extreme. The market has decided that an upwards trend is just not in the cards, twice a new high was tested and twice the market sold to push it back down. After noticing a Double Top a trader is generally safe to assume that for the time being the market will move in a downwards trend, thus affording an opportunity to sell, or exit a soon to be falling long position.
Of course, Double Bottoms are just the opposite of Double Tops. Twice the market will test a new low, and twice the market will refuse the idea of pushing beyond that point. The buyers will rally and an uptrend will follow.

• There are three types of triangles that technical traders focus on:

Ascending Triangle
Descending Triangle
Symmetrical Triangle
Ascending triangles are considered bullish pattern formations, though depending on whether they are formed during an up-trend or a down-trend they may have different implications towards future price movement. Spotted within an up-trend an ascending triangle is typically considered an indication that the upwards trend will continue. Just the opposite, if an ascending triangle forms during a downwards trend it is considered an indication of a trend reversal. Essentially, ascending triangles are comprised of a series of candles that, in accordance with the pattern’s name, form the shape of a triangle. The term ascending triangle refers to the fact that the triangle’s two trend lines are not created equally; the top line of the triangle will represent a fairly even level of high prices, while the lower level of the triangle will represent a continued series of higher lows.
• The consolidation between buyers and sellers at an upward slant suggests pressure from the buyers. The resistance line can typically only hold for so long before the buyers get the best of the sellers and the price breaks out in an upwards trend, at which point the resistance level often becomes the new support level; or for a seasoned trader, a wise level to place a stop loss. Figure 3 shows an example of an ascending triangle. As can be seen, it is generally safe to assume that the triangle will break out at least five candles before the actual point of the triangle would form.

Descending triangles, naturally, are just the opposite of ascending triangles. In a downwards trend the triangle forms as an indication that the trend will continue downwards. In an upwards trend the triangle forms as an indication of a trend reversal. Descending triangles are formed when there is a series of progressively lower highs and relatively even lows. As can be seen in the image below the top line or resistance line of the triangle will be angled down, while the lower line or support level will appear as a level horizontal line.
Symmetrical triangles are most often considered a continuation pattern. Symmetrical triangles can be seen as a series of lower highs and higher lows develop forming the shape of a triangle. This pattern represents a struggle between buyers and sellers, as is usually the case with price consolidation; more often than not symmetrical triangles precede a price breakout. Though it is generally safe to assume that symmetrical triangles will only present themselves as an indication that the current trend either upwards or downwards will continue, this may not always be the case.

• The good news for seasoned traders is that one need not really know ahead of time where the market will head, the true key is simply to spot the symmetrical triangle developing. As can be seen in the example below once the support or resistance line of the triangle has been penetrated by two to three consecutive candles the trend will more than likely continue in that direction, thus offering traders an excellent entry point.

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Trading Forex- Understanding a Margin Call

Naturally when you first start trading you don’t like to focus on margin calls. We all hope we will never have one.
However it is good to understand what they are and when your broker will take that action.
First what is a margin call? Let’s assume you are trading 1 standard Lot with USD as the base currency and your account is $1000 USD. You have arranged with the broker a 100:1 borrowing (leverage).

This means you need as a minimum your $1000 as your margin. Once you have opened your trade and as it is trading the currencies spike against you and all of a sudden your margin is showing as $50 or less, at this point the broker will either contact you or make the call to close the trade. This limits his risk because you have deposited $1000 and your losses of $950 are covered. It can also be beneficial to you because if you are letting your losses run too long hoping it will turn around you could lose a lot of money, which you might not have.
The best way to approach this is to talk to the broker first so you know what their policies are.
If you are a day trader this next tip will not affect you. I am talking about when you leave a trade open over night. Forex as we know is global and depending on where you live the official end of day could be at an odd time for you. The forex market officially ends its business day 21h59 (London time).

What happens is simple any trade that is open is automatically “rolled over”. That way the trade is not closed and there is never any actual delivery of the currency. Most brokers will do this automatically and it will just keep happening. The point to note is the brokers will charge you interest if there is any differential between the interest rates of the country.

If you are trading EUR:GBP and Europe has an interest rate of 4% and England has an interest rate of 2% the differential is 2% . (these figures are for illustrative purposes only)
It works both ways, sometimes you gain the difference and other times you are charged it.
Example. If you bought the currency with the high interest rate, you gain; if you sold the currency with the higher interest rate then you are charged the difference.

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Margin call explanation

A Quick Explanation of Market-to-Market

I thought I would make a quick post just to explain the misconception of the term ‘market-to-market’ - which is really not a financial term - rather its ‘marked-to-market’. I have gotten a few emails of people asking me what exactly this means and whether I could provide a really simple explanation of this term.

Typically, you see “marked to market” referring to a derivatives position or a margin lending facility. At the end of each trading day, each counter party exchanges the change in the market value of their position in cash. That is, each counter party is required to settle their obligations to ensure a “zero-net-game” exists. So “marking to market” typically occurs at the end of the trading day where an account has fallen below a given threshold and a broker requests from the client, via a margin call, that the client deposits more funds (or at worst, liquidates the account) in order to get the account back within the predefined “ratio limit”. i.e. the ratio limit is the amount a broker will allow for “fluctuations” in the market before instigating a margin call. Typically most brokers set this rate between 5% - 10% of the trade amount. So if you had a $10,000 margin loan set up, and the ratio limit before a margin call was instigated was at 10% - a value drop of more than $1000 would instigate a margin call and you would be required to top up the account.

So really ‘marked-to-market’ means ensuring that the position you are in is “converted to the current market prices” and is a full reflection of the market on any given day at closing.

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Earn to Predict Forex Trend Reversals with Candlesticks: Doji, Hammer etc

We will refer to the most common of candlesticks which you should use in order to identify trends.


When the opening and closing price are identical we have a Doji candlestick. These candlesticks have no body (or almost no body) at all. They may mean the end of a trend. Market reverses but may not reverse immediately due to pressures to the opposite side that after a while lose their steam.

In order for Doji To have reversal significance:

Doji should be drawn on daily chart
It must occur on relative low or high of the market
If it occurs in the midway of a trend the signal is neutral(rickshaw man candlestick)
We should have confirmed signals of other indicators such trendline resistance etc

A Doji candlestick signaling reversal
The signal is “sell at top”. It is called hangman because traders that haven’t seen it will be hanged that is caught to the violent reversal of the market. Signal is sell at top

A hangman candlestick
Same as hangman, but with black body. Occurs at the bottom of the trend and “hammers” all the traders that missed the market reversal. Signal is buy at the bottom.
EXTRA CAUTION: The same as dojis apply but you should also remember that the body of the candlestick is relatively small. (not bigger than one half or one third of the shadow).

A hammer candlestick
Let’s now look some combinations of candlesticks that give us extra signals.
Here the two consecutive candlesticks have the same high or the same lows. In an upward trending market tweezers top occurs when highs are the same. The opposite happened in a tweezers bottom. EXTRA CAUTION: Wait and see interpretation changes to reversal when the pattern occurs after an extended move. The figures below shows tweezers candlestick in real market.

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The margin requirements must be respected by Friday at 23:00 GMT and before holidays.
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Thursday, March 5, 2009

COHEN: Russia's gas war

Despite feverish negotiations with participation of the European Union, Russia and Ukraine failed to agree on resolution of the gas dispute between them. Mutual disdain escalated haggling and acrimony between leaders in Moscow and Kiev to hysterical pitch.
With 11 people frozen to death, and tens of thousands shivering, this is a humanitarian disaster caused by the worst energy crisis in Europe since the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Whole towns in Eastern Europe remain without heat. Not surprisingly, Russia is losing its reputation as a reliable supplier of gas, and Europeans are hopping mad.

The clash is over the price of natural gas as well as over geopolitics. Russia, a major exporter, wants top dollar. Ukraine, an importer - but also the site of a key pipeline delivering Russian gas to the rest of Europe - wants bargain prices and higher fees for transit.
On Jan. 1, 2009, things turned ugly. According to the Russian state-owned monopoly Gazprom, Ukraine owed more than $600 million in penalties for late payments. That's when Russia began reducing gas supplies to Ukraine amidst frigid temperatures: 10 degrees Celsius lower than average. The initial reduction affected six countries. Today, the crisis extends to 13 countries from the Balkans to the Baltics.

With temperatures as low as zero Fahrenheit, the demand for heating is growing, mitigated only by declining industrial production. Ukraine used to pay for gas way below Europe's market prices, while Kiev is trying to deny Russian accusations of siphoning off gas earmarked for the Europeans. But Moscow's demands go beyond greed.
The crisis is about more than gas, though. Ukraine is a key energy transit state. Moscow is also signaling the Ukrainians, Europe and the United States that Ukraine should remain within the Russian sphere of influence, and NATO is a no-no.
The crisis demonstrates Europe's strategic dependence on Russian gas. In the long term, the situation must change, to keep Europe from falling hostage to Russia.
Russia has long used energy as a geopolitical weapon. And Ukraine left itself vulnerable by failing to diversify its energy basket away from the cheap Russian gas, clean up corruption, and modernize its own energy sector. Today, Ukraine consumes as much energy as Germany, but produces only 10 percent of German GDP.

Worse, Kiev failed to develop a coherent policy toward its Russian supplier. This is because shady intermediaries, like Swiss-based RosUkrEnergo, in charge of sales of the Russian and Turkmen gas, allegedly greased palms of senior officials in both countries until October of 2008.

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Kremlin snubbed as Russia, Ukraine plan gas crisis talks

MOSCOW (AFP) — Russia and Ukraine agreed Thursday to hold new talks on their gas war as Europe batted aside a Kremlin proposal for a summit in Moscow to resolve a feud that has left millions of Europeans freezing.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Russia was in danger of losing its credibility as an energy supplier because of the gas cutoff to Europe, and France said supplies should resume before any summit takes place.
The European Union presidency, chaired by the Czech Republic, said EU member states agreed that the gas row between Russia and Ukraine will have "significant" economic and political consequences for both nations.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown was to hold talks in London on Thursday with Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko, Brown's office said.
Speaking during a visit to Berlin ahead of the meeting, Brown said the crisis "re-emphasised to the world the need to diversify energy supplies."
Yushchenko further upped the stakes by telling Russian President Dmitry Medvedev by telephone that Moscow should pump the full 330 million cubic metres a day due to European consumers, which Ukraine would then pass on to Europe.

Russia has accused Ukraine of blocking a partial resumption of supplies.
A spokesman for Vladimir Putin said the powerful Russian prime minister would meet Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in Moscow on Saturday to discuss efforts to get Russian gas through Ukraine to European consumers.
Putin proposed to the head of Italian energy giant ENI that European firms form a consortium to buy the gas needed to ensure the transit of Russian gas to Europe.
Putin was expected to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin on Friday that are likely to be overshadowed by Russia's move to turn off gas supplies to Ukraine, which it accuses of not paying energy debts and siphoning off gas.

"The danger that Russia will also lose part of its credibility because of these interruptions of supplies is certainly one that exists, and tomorrow in my talks with... Putin, I will have to address this issue," Merkel said.
The European Union said it was prepared to send the Czech energy minister, representing the EU presidency, and the EU energy commissioner to take part in the Russia-Ukraine meeting in Moscow on Saturday.
EU ambassadors met with the Czech EU presidency and agreed that "the current situation is damaging the credibility of Russia and Ukraine as reliable supply and transit countries," the EU presidency said in a statement.
The 27 members felt "this situation will have significant financial, economic and political consequences for both countries," it added.
But the EU has so far held off on responding to Kremlin leader Medvedev's proposal to hold a broader summit of all the countries affected by the gas crisis, including consumers and transit nations, also in Moscow the same day.
After an invitation by the Kremlin to European leaders to attend the summit, France responded that Russia and Ukraine should resume gas exports to Europe first while the EU presidency said the meeting should be held in Europe.
"As long as gas deliveries from Russia and Ukraine have not resumed in line with their commitments, conditions are not ripe for a summit," said Eric Chevallier, a French foreign ministry spokesman.

The EU, which has voiced growing concern over the crisis as gas stocks in Europe run low, said the summit should not be held in Moscow but on EU territory -- a view echoed by the Ukrainian leadership.
Medvedev extended a personal invitation to Yushchenko and to Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin to attend the "Moscow international conference" on Saturday in telephone calls on Thursday, the Kremlin press service said.
Gas-fired central heating has been reduced or cut off for millions of Europeans in the crisis, schools have been shut down and factories closed as a huge swathe of central Europe and the Balkans struggles to cope.
The EU depends on Russian gas via Ukraine for a fifth of its total supplies.
The EU has sent emergency aid including electric heaters and generators to crisis-hit Moldova, while Slovakia has warned it faces a complete electricity blackout in a week if it receives no Russian gas.
Russia cut off supplies to Ukraine's domestic market on New Year's Day in a payment dispute and then halted deliveries to Europe via Ukraine on January 7, saying it was forced to do so because Kiev was stealing the gas.

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Saddam to Commanders: Wait, Do We Have WMDs?

Saddam Hussein didn't have weapons of mass destruction, but America made such a strong case that even the Iraqi leader himself had doubts, the Washington Post reports. Saddam, apparently in awe of US intelligence, asked his top commanders if the nation had stashes even he didn't know about. So says a new book by a CIA investigator, which also notes that Vladimir Putin tried to get Saddam to step down in 2003 to avert a US invasion.

Hide and Seek, by Charles Duelfer, also doles out blame over US bumbling. Duelfer gave the CIA a list of Iraqis who could help stabilize the country post-invasion, which was instead used to target and harass the individuals. More tantalizing: Details on Saddam's last days in prison, where he wrote poems, flirted with US nurses, asked for a firing squad instead of a noose, and pledged to restart Iraq's nuclear program.

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